Novel Coronavirus Emergency Response Preparedness with HazMasterG3

Alluviam LLC is closely monitoring the ongoing outbreak of the novel corona virus (Covid-19), that originated in Wuhan, China and is now spreading throughout the world.  This post will get updated daily, as additional confirmed case counts become available.

From an emergency response perspective, HazMasterG3 is unique as it is the only CBRNE decision support system available today that provides comprehensive emergency response guidance on the corona virus, based on the last outbreak of SARS (a closely related corona virus) in Hong Kong.  Emergency responders deployed with HazMasterG3 can search on SARS for immediate access to validated response guidance.  A comprehensive timeline of events surrounding the current epidemic can be found at Just Security.

The map below the charts is updated daily.  The charts below were updated through 16 April 2020: 

*WHO defines a confirmed case as a patient with a laboratory confirmation of 2019-nCoV infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms.  On the 7th of February, China unilaterially reinterpreted this definition to exclude cases where there was laboratory confirmation, but the patient did not show signs of pneumonia.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that new cases for the days after the 7th of February actually declined.  While no explanation for the Chinese's novel definition of a case has been provided, and WHO has chosen to remain silent, actions like this cast a long shadow over Covid-19 surveillance data coming out of China.  12 Feb update: "From today on, we will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases so that patients could receive timely treatment," the Hubei health authority said in a statement. 19 Feb update: China has flip-flopped yet again on their stated method of accounting for cases in order to project a more rosy picture of reality and to better shape the narrative of events within impacted regions.  2 Apr update: Recent reporting indicates that case counts and death rates from China may be 20X-40X greater than what the CCP actually reported.  To be fair, as of March 2, the US's CDC stopped disclosing the number of tests completed (which up to March 1, 2020 had been an embarassing low of 542).  Until this changes, there is not even a reasonable metric coming from the US, inspite of the fact that CDC still has this data from its testing, and testing reported by states and other reference labs.

Death listed below are likely on the low-side as certain countries likely under-report:

Note that the above are trailing indicators of the true spread of the disease as the incubation period is estimated to be up to 14 days and it is believed that people may spread the virus during this time, prior to exhibiting any symptoms.  As a new novel variant of the corona virus, its too early to know for sure (especially as these viruses mutate) the rate of transmission of this virus, but early estimates based on the limited data available to-date point to numbers between 2.25 - 3.5.  R0, the basic reproduction number, is the average number of secondary infections caused by a typical infective person in a susceptible population, where control and containment measures have not been put in place.  To put this into perspective, according to WHO the numbers for influenza are between 2-3, depending on the specific strain.  The SARS outbreak was between 2-5, while smallpox is between 5-7 (higher numbers are worse).

In an effort to contain the virus's spread, as of 25 January, at least 5 municipalties in China are under quarantine - representing an estimated population of over 50 million people.  The first quarantine was announced on 23 January, for Wuhan with an estimated population of 11 million, and has rapidly expanded over the last three days to now include over 50 million.

We consider the map below more informative than several other "dashboard style" visualizations that we've seen, as it will scale more effectively as the outbreak grows.  Drill in on any placemark for additional information on cases at that locale:

(the above comes courtesy of BNO News, that has been doing a good job regularly updating it)

Reliable source data for this article come from the World Health Organization, the US Centers for Disease Control, Imperial College of London's Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and others.

Current HazMasterG3 customers can contact Alluviam via standard support channels regarding technical questions regarding HazMasterG3 and the current outbreak.